Selling Out the Future

Mass communications has been used to over-sell the future for more than a century. Over time this blog will show how an inflated vision of the future has generated excessive optimism, leading recently to the credit bubble that is crippling the real economy. The latest issue of the Atlantic Monthly (December, 2008) contains an example. Author Henry Blodget is a chastened former investment broker who gives his version of what went wrong in Why Wall Street Always Blows It. According to Blodget, the reason is in our DNA . We are programmed for optimism, no matter what evidence exists to the contrary. On page 86, he offers this encapsuled explanation: "The future is always uncertain -- and amid uncertainty, all sorts of faith-based theories can flourish, even on Wall Street."

On the opposing page is an ad by a major U.S. energy supplier. "Tomorrow Begins Today" is the tag line. It is one of the oldest themes in American commerce, and one of the most misleading. In fact, for the generation whose hopes are being dashed in the collapse of the stock and housing markets, the most blase forecasters don't see a turn-around for at least a year or two. Others think it might take the best part of a decade for that to happen.

The lesson is brutally simple. Once in a while the future runs out and -- like a demented game of musical chairs -- we are stuck in the reality of the present.

A Chorus of Ones

Obama relied on social networking technology to win a stunning victory over his Democratic and Republican opponents. Now he's using it to govern prematurely as the president-elect. On the weekend he used the Web to spread the message of his infrastructure plan to rescue the U.S. economy. With the emphasis on interactive technological solutions, Obama may be remaking the bond between Americans and their president. This kind of short-term action will help to strengthen the constituency for dramatic change, even in the face of economic instability that is unprecedented in the lifespan of a couple of generations. Rapid-fire measures, conveyed directly in real time, will certainly revolutionize communications between the governors and the governed. In time, it may even produce valuable momentum on the path to a resurgent economy. No doubt it will also excite expectations that technlogy can be relied on to do the heavy lifting instead of expending the human capital that has always been required to move the mountains. That is not an adequate lesson for the long term. We North Americans have come to believe that somebody or something else will pick up the tab for our extravagance. What other message can the people of developing countries be getting when we persist in the lifestyle that created our current mess and expect them to ride bicycles? We need to devise solutions that work because they are facilitated by technology. But we cannot duck the onus for change. It is on each one of us.

Amen Emanuel

The pre-Christmas Wallmart shopping stampede is just the latest example of a herd mentality among North American consumers that is unbecoming of cattle. This is what decades of mercantile propaganda has wrought in a society that would kill for the sake of a big enough bargain. Six people were trampled in the rush, including one 34-year-old man, Jdimytai Damour, who died from his injuries. And nobody was being charged because there was no way to assign responsibility for the death. But it is unlikely that the spectre of such frantic acquisitiveness will change much. After all, how many shootings will it take to stem the media-induced high school death toll? People who value liberty over human life will continue to shoot each other over nothing and trample the rest as long as they can. Having proved its unwillingness to stamp out gun violence, what are the odds that government will restrain rampant consumerism. Only the markets can restore a common-sense balance. And maybe the debt crisis will make the point, for once, that there should be some some limits beyond what people can get away with. Hopefully Rahm Emanuel had that in mind when he said we shouldn't let any crisis go to waste.