Mass communications has been used to over-sell the future for more than a century. Over time this blog will show how an inflated vision of the future has generated excessive optimism, leading recently to the credit bubble that is crippling the real economy. The latest issue of the Atlantic Monthly (December, 2008) contains an example. Author Henry Blodget is a chastened former investment broker who gives his version of what went wrong in Why Wall Street Always Blows It. According to Blodget, the reason is in our DNA . We are programmed for optimism, no matter what evidence exists to the contrary. On page 86, he offers this encapsuled explanation: "The future is always uncertain -- and amid uncertainty, all sorts of faith-based theories can flourish, even on Wall Street."
On the opposing page is an ad by a major U.S. energy supplier. "Tomorrow Begins Today" is the tag line. It is one of the oldest themes in American commerce, and one of the most misleading. In fact, for the generation whose hopes are being dashed in the collapse of the stock and housing markets, the most blase forecasters don't see a turn-around for at least a year or two. Others think it might take the best part of a decade for that to happen.
The lesson is brutally simple. Once in a while the future runs out and -- like a demented game of musical chairs -- we are stuck in the reality of the present.
How can you claim to speak for 99% of people?
10 years ago
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